Increasing ethnic diversity projected across New Zealand

Press Release – Statistics New Zealand

Increasing ethnic diversity projected across New Zealand – Media release

30 September 2015

All New Zealand’s 16 regions and nearly all the 67 territorial authority areas (TAs) are projected to have increasing ethnic diversity over the next two decades, Statistics New Zealand said today. New ethnic population projections indicate increasing Māori, Asian, and Pacific populations in nearly all regions and TAs between 2013 and 2038.

In contrast, those identifying with ‘European or Other (including New Zealander)’ ethnicities will represent a decreasing share of people in all regions and most TAs. However, this population is still projected to increase in number between 2013 and 2038 in 11 regions and 37 TAs.

“These different ethnic growth rates reflect the combined impact of different fertility rates, age structures, and migration patterns,” population statistics manager Vina Cullum said.

“The pattern within Auckland is particularly interesting,” she said. “By 2038, the broad Asian population is projected to be the largest group in the Whau, Puketapapa, and Howick local board areas, while the broad Pacific group will be the largest group in the Mangere-Otahuhu and Manurewa local board areas. And there will be a relatively even spread of the four major ethnic groups in Henderson-Massey, Maungakiekie-Tamaki, and Papakura local board areas.”

The projections also indicate a gradual ageing of all ethnic populations across New Zealand. This will see increasing numbers and proportions of each ethnic population in the older ages in every region and TA.

“Ethnic projections are of more than just academic interest,” Vina Cullum said. “They inform New Zealanders about our changing demographic picture. They help ethnic communities understand their own changing populations. And they assist planning in areas such as education and health, where different ethnic populations can have different needs.”

Subnational ethnic population projections: 2013(base)–2038 are based on assumptions about the components that affect ethnic population change: fertility, mortality, migration, and inter-ethnic mobility.


For more information about these statistics:
• Visit Subnational Ethnic Population Projections: 2013(base)–2038
• Open the attached files

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